Results breakdown of the 2019 Canadian federal election

The 2019 Canadian federal election was held on October 21, 2019, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 43rd Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada, having previously held a majority of the seats in the House, was returned with a minority of the seats, while the Conservative Party of Canada gained fewer seats than expected and the Bloc Québécois saw its standing revived in Quebec.

In this election there were 18,170,880 valid votes cast with 179,479 votes rejected, for total voter turnout of 67 percent of the 27,373,028 registered voters.

Summary

Campaign strategy was weak in most of the political parties. As one commentator remarked, "Never before have both major parties taken such a small share of the vote. Never before, in my memory, have both declined steadily and together throughout a campaign." While the Conservative share of the vote rose from 31.9 percent in 2015 to 34.4 percent in 2019, and saw its share of the popular vote rise in 194 of the ridings, its share of the vote fell In the remaining 144. The Liberals emerged from the election with a strategic advantage in seats in both Ontario and Quebec, and the Conservatives' weakness on election day may lead to questions about the future of its leader Andrew Scheer, but there is also discussion as to whether the Tories' shortfall is due to more systemic reasons, especially with respect to the urban/rural divide in the electorate.

Opinion polling was generally accurate, although in most polls support for the Liberals and Conservatives was mildly understated, while that for the Bloc and the Greens was overstated. Seats won fell within poll projections, but it was noted that at least eight seats expected to go to the NDP actually went Liberal, leading to the conjecture that the prior departure of their long-time NDP MPs revealed the underlying weakness of the party brand.

Synopsis of results

Results overview Summary analysis ↓ 157 121 32 24 3 1

PartyVotesSeats6,018,728 6.4pp 276,239,227 2.5pp 221,384,030 3.0pp 222,903,722 3.8pp 201,189,607 3.0pp 175,836 0.1pp 1

Change in popular vote + Change in popular vote by party (2019 vs 2015) Party 2019 2015 Change (pp)

Results by province +Distribution of seats and popular vote %, by party by province/territory (2019)Party name BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS PE NL YT NT NU Total Liberal Seats:11 – – 4 79 35 6 10 4 6 1 1 – 157 Vote:26.2 13.8 11.7 26.5 41.6 34.3 37.5 41.4 43.7 44.9 33.5 39.7 30.9 33.1 Conservative Seats:17 33 14 7 36 10 3 1 – – – – – 121 Vote:34.0 69.0 64.0 45.2 33.1 16.0 32.8 25.7 27.3 27.9 32.7 25.5 26.1 34.3 NDP Seats:11 1 – 3 6 1 – – – 1 – – 1 24 Vote:24.4 11.6 19.6 20.8 16.8 10.8 9.4 18.9 7.6 23.7 22.0 22.3 40.816.0 Bloc Québécois Seats: 32 32 Vote:32.4 7.6 Green Seats:2 – – – – – 1 – – – – – – 3 Vote:12.5 2.8 2.6 5.1 6.2 4.5 17.2 11.0 20.9 3.1 10.5 10.6 2.2 6.5 People's Seats:–– – – – – – – – – – – – – Vote:1.7 2.2 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 1.2 – 0.1 1.4 1.8 – 1.6 Independents and others Seats:1 – – – – – – – – – – – – 1 Vote:0.9 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 – – – – – 0.2 Seats:42 34 14 14 121 78 10 11 4 7 1 1 1 338

+ Proportion of seats won in each province/territory, by party (2019)ProvinceLiberalConservativeNDPBlocGreenOntario Quebec Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba British Columbia Prince Edward Island Saskatchewan Alberta Newfoundland and Labrador Northern Canada Total

Seats won and lost by party + Elections to the 43rd Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2015–2019Party2015Gain from (loss to)2019LibConNDP BQ Grn Ind184 2 (21) 5 (3) (8) (1) (1) 15799 21 (2) 6 (3) 12144 3 (5) (6) (11) (1) 2410 8 3 11 321 1 1 3– 1 1Total 338 34 (7) 5 (27) 23 (3) (22) (2) (1) 338

The following 62 seats (representing 18.34 percent of seats in the House of Commons) changed allegiance from the 2015 election:

Liberal to Conservative (22) Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond HillLeona Alleslev had previously crossed the floor from the Liberals in 2018 Calgary Centre Calgary Skyview Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley Chicoutimi—Le Fjord Cloverdale—Langley City Edmonton Centre Edmonton Mill Woods Fundy Royal Hastings—Lennox and Addington Kelowna—Lake Country Kenora Kildonan—St. Paul Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon New Brunswick Southwest Northumberland—Peterborough South Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Regina—Wascana Steveston—Richmond East Tobique—Mactaquac West Nova

NDP to Bloc (11) Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou Abitibi—Témiscamingue Beloeil—Chambly Berthier—Maskinongé Drummond Jonquière Longueuil—Saint-Hubert Rimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les Basques Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot Salaberry—Suroît Trois-Rivières Liberal to Bloc (8) Avignon—La Mitis—Matane—Matapédia La Prairie Laurentides—Labelle Montarville Rivière-des-Mille-Îles Saint-Jean Shefford Thérèse-De Blainville NDP to Conservative (6) Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River Essex Kootenay—Columbia Port Moody—Coquitlam Regina—Lewvan Saskatoon West

NDP to Liberal (5) Hochelaga Laurier—Sainte-Marie Outremont Sherbrooke Windsor—Tecumseh Liberal to NDP (3) Nunavut St. John's East Winnipeg Centre Conservative to Bloc (3) Beauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—Charlevoix Beauport—Limoilou Lac-Saint-Jean Conservative to Liberal (2) Kitchener—Conestoga Milton Liberal to Green (1) Fredericton NDP to Green (1) Nanaimo—Ladysmith Liberal to Independent (1) Vancouver Granville

The reasons for the changes were:

Reason# of MPsDefeated in general election45Open seats that changed hands11Vacancies previously filled in by-elections; subsequently retained3Vacancies previously filled in by-elections; subsequently lost to another party1Standing under different political affiliation2Total62

Defeated MPs + MPs defeated (2019)Party (2015)RidingMPFirst electedDefeated byPartyAvignon—La Mitis—Matane—MatapédiaRémi Massé2015Kristina MichaudCalgary CentreKent Hehr2015Greg McLeanCharleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—HeadingleyDoug Eyolfson2015Marty MorantzCloverdale—Langley CityJohn Aldag2015Tamara JansenEdmonton CentreRandy Boissonnault2015James CummingEdmonton Mill WoodsAmarjeet Sohi2015Tim Uppalpreviously served as MP in 2008-2015FrederictonMatt DeCourcey2015Jenica AtwinFundy RoyalAlaina Lockhart2015Rob Moorepreviously served as MP in 2004-2015Hastings—Lennox and AddingtonMike Bossio2015Derek SloanKelowna—Lake CountryStephen Fuhr2015Tracy GrayKenoraBob Nault2015Eric MelilloKildonan—St. PaulMaryAnn Mihychuk2015Raquel DanchoLa PrairieJean-Claude Poissant2015Alain TherrienLaurentides—LabelleDavid Graham2015Marie-Hélène GaudreauMission—Matsqui—Fraser CanyonJati Sidhu2015Brad VisMontarvilleMichel Picard2015Stéphane BergeronNew Brunswick SouthwestKaren Ludwig2015John Williamsonpreviously served as MP in 2011-2015Northumberland—Peterborough SouthKim Rudd2015Philip LawrencePitt Meadows—Maple RidgeDan Ruimy2015Marc DaltonRegina—WascanaRalph Goodale1993Michael KramRivière-des-Mille-ÎlesLinda Lapointe2015Luc DesiletsSaint-JeanJean Rioux2015Christine NormandinSt. John's EastNick Whalen2015Jack Harrispreviously served as MP in 2008-2015SheffordPierre Breton2015Andréanne LaroucheSteveston—Richmond EastJoe Peschisolido2015previously served as Alliance MP in 2000-2004Kenny ChiuThérèse-De BlainvilleRamez Ayoub2015Louise ChabotWinnipeg CentreRobert-Falcon Ouellette2015Leah GazanBeloeil—ChamblyMatthew Dubé2011Yves-François BlanchetBerthier—MaskinongéRuth Ellen Brosseau2011Yves PerronDesnethé—Missinippi—Churchill RiverGeorgina Jolibois2015Gary VidalDrummondFrançois Choquette2011Martin ChampouxEssexTracey Ramsey2015Chris LewisJonquièreKarine Trudel2015Mario SimardKootenay—ColumbiaWayne Stetski2015Rob MorrisonLongueuil—Saint-HubertPierre Nantelexpelled from NDP caucus in 2019; stood as a Green candidate in general election2011Denis TrudelRimouski-Neigette—Témiscouata—Les BasquesGuy Caron2011Maxime Blanchette-JoncasSaint-Hyacinthe—BagotBrigitte Sansoucy2015Simon-Pierre Savard-TremblaySaskatoon WestSheri Benson2015Brad RedekoppSherbrookePierre-Luc Dusseault2011Élisabeth BrièreTrois-RivièresRobert Aubin2011Louise CharbonneauWindsor—TecumsehCheryl Hardcastle2015Irek KusmierczykBeauport—Côte-de-Beaupré—Île d'Orléans—CharlevoixSylvie Boucher2015previously served as MP in 2006-2011Caroline DesbiensBeauport—LimoilouAlupa Clarke2015Julie VignolaKitchener—ConestogaHarold Albrecht2006Tim LouisMiltonLisa Raitt2008Adam van Koeverden

Open seats that changed hands Of the 44 seats that were open at dissolution, 11 were won by candidates of non-incumbent parties:

+ Open seats that changed hands (2019)Party (2015)Electoral districtOutgoing MPWon byParty Calgary SkyviewDarshan KangJag Sahota NunavutHunter TootooMumilaaq Qaqqaq Tobique—MactaquacT. J. HarveyRichard Bragdon West NovaColin FraserChris d'Entremont Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—EeyouRomeo SaganashSylvie Bérubé Abitibi—TémiscamingueChristine MooreSébastien Lemire HochelagaMarjolaine Boutin-SweetSoraya Martinez Ferrada Laurier—Sainte-MarieHélène LaverdièreSteven Guilbeault Port Moody—CoquitlamFin DonnellyNelly Shin Regina—LewvanErin WeirWarren Steinley Salaberry—SuroîtAnne Minh-Thu QuachClaude DeBellefeuille

Vacancies filled in earlier by-elections

Three open seats were filled in earlier by-elections, retained by the winners in the ensuing general election:

+ Seats that changed hands in earlier by-elections; subsequently retainedParty (2015)Electoral districtOutgoing MPWon byPartyChicoutimi—Le FjordDenis LemieuxRichard Martel (2018)Nanaimo—LadysmithSheila MalcolmsonPaul Manly (2019)OutremontTom MulcairRachel Bendayan (2019)

Two vacancies were filled in earlier by-elections, but the winners failed to keep them in the general election. They were both upset votes in favour of the Liberals, where one subsequently returned to the previous party, while the other went to a third party.

+ Seats that changed hands in earlier by-elections; subsequently turned overParty (2015)Electoral districtOutgoing MPWon byPartyOusted byPartyLac-Saint-JeanDenis LebelRichard Hébert (2017)Alexis Brunelle-DuceppeSouth Surrey—White RockDianne WattsGordie Hogg (2017)Kerry-Lynne Findlay

MPs standing under a different political affiliation Leona Alleslev had previously crossed the floor from the Liberals to the Conservatives in 2018, and was subsequently re-elected as a Conservative. Jody Wilson-Raybould contested her seat as an Independent and won, after having been expelled from the Liberal caucus.

MP Riding 2015 2019Leona AlleslevAurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Jody Wilson-RaybouldVancouver Granville

Swing analysis within the largest provinces +Results in BC (2019 vs 2015)PartySeatsVotes 2015 Gained Lost 2019 Total % Change (%) 10 7 – 17 799,239 34.1 +4.1 17 – -6 11 612,098 26.1 -9.1 14 – -3 11 572,063 24.4 -1.5 1 1 – 2 290,629 12.4 +4.2 – – – – 39,549 1.7 – 1 – 1 30,182 1.3 +0.6Total 42 2,343,760Turnout 65.0%Liberal to Conservative swing 6.6%Liberal to Green swing 6.6%

+Results in Alberta (2019 vs 2015)PartySeatsVotes 2015 Gained Lost 2019 Total % Change (%) 29 4 – 33 1,413,360 69.2 +9.7 4 – -4 – 280,309 13.7 -10.9 1 – – 1 235,013 11.5 -0.1 – – – – 57,468 2.8 +0.3 – – – – 9,476 0.6 -1.2Total 342,041,445Turnout 68.5%Liberal to Conservative swing 10.3%

+Results in Saskatchewan (2019 vs 2015)PartySeatsVotes 2015 Gained Lost 2019 Total % Change (%) 10 4 – 14 366,611 64.3 +15.8 3 – -3 – 111,379 19.5 -5.6 1 – -1 – 66,031 11.6 -12.3 – – – – 14,417 2.5 +0.4 – – – – 10,211 1.8 – – – – 1,856 0.3 -0.1Total 14570,505Turnout 71.7%Liberal to Conservative swing 14.0%

+Results in Manitoba (2019 vs 2015)PartySeatsVotes 2015 Gained Lost 2019 Total % Change (%) 5 2 – 7 264,071 45.4 +8.1 7 – -3 4 152,803 26.3 -18.3 2 1 – 3 120,533 20.7 +6.9 – – – – 29,768 5.1 +1.9 – – – – 10,021 1.7 – – – – 3,840 0.8 -0.3Total 14581,036Turnout 63.8%Liberal to Conservative swing 13.2%