A regional election was held in the Region of Murcia on 26 May 2019 to elect the 10th Regional Assembly of the autonomous community. All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in eleven other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain, as well as the 2019 European Parliament election.

Overview Electoral system The Regional Assembly of Murcia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Murcia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Murcian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. Voting for the Regional Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Region of Murcia and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Additionally, Murcians abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote ().

The 45 members of the Regional Assembly of Murcia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied regionally.

Election date The term of the Regional Assembly of Murcia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the Regional Assembly were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 24 May 2015, setting the election date for the Regional Assembly on 26 May 2019.

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Regional Assembly of Murcia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Regional Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.

The election to the Regional Assembly of Murcia was officially triggered on 2 April 2019 after the publication of the election decree in the Official Gazette of the Region of Murcia (BORM), scheduling for the chamber to convene on 11 June.

Background In the aftermath of the 2015 election, the People's Party (PP) and Citizens (Cs) signed a confidence and supply agreement which allowed Pedro Antonio Sánchez to be elected as new Murcian president. As part of the PP–Cs agreement, one of the newly elected Assembly's first initiatives was to increase the proportionality of the regional electoral system by scrapping the sub-provincial constituencies and lowering the required threshold from 5% to 3%.

A political crisis unveiled in the community after Pedro Antonio Sánchez was accused of several corruption offences on 20 February 2017. The scandal involved an ongoing judicial investigation on alleged irregularities in the process of awarding, construction and reception of an auditorium in Puerto Lumbreras, town from which Sánchez had been mayor between 2003 and 2013. While Sánchez had repeatedly assured he would resign right away if he was ever judicially charged for any crimes, he refused to do so after learning of his indictment despite Cs calls. Subsequently, Cs withdrew its parliamentary support, leaving the PP in minority, while threatening to support a censure motion on Sánchez promoted by the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Podemos. The PP accused Cs of breaking their agreement and of "playing with fire", with parties hinting at the possibility that a snap election could be eventually called by Sánchez in order to prevent his removal.

On 8 March, Cs gave Pedro Antonio Sánchez an ultimatum, demanding him to either tender his resignation or call a snap election before 27 March. Otherwise, Cs would support the PSOE censure motion to bring him down. On 3 April, the President of Murcia was accused by judge Eloy Velasco—from the National Audience—of participating in the case known as Trama Púnica (in Spanish), which led to his resignation as regional president on the following day and the withdrawal of the scheduled censure motion presented by the PSOE. During his farewell speech, Pedro Antonio Sánchez proposed Fernando López Miras as his successor.

Parliamentary composition The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Regional Assembly at the time of dissolution.

+ Parliamentary composition in April 2019 Groups Parties Legislators Seats Total People's Parliamentary Group PP 22 22 Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 13 13 We Can Parliamentary Group Podemos 6 6 Citizens Parliamentary Group Cs 4 4

Parties and candidates The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the Region of Murcia, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties andalliances Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Vote % Seats PP Fernando López Miras ConservatismChristian democracy 37.4% PSOE Diego Conesa Social democracy 23.9% Podemos–Equo Óscar Urralburu Left-wing populismDirect democracyDemocratic socialism 13.2% Cs Isabel Franco Liberalism 12.6% Vox Pascual Salvador Right-wing populismUltranationalismNational conservatism 0.8%

Opinion polls The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout Lead 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 62.3 32.4 32.5 5.6 12.0 2.0 9.5 0.9 – 2.0 0.1 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 22–23 May 2019?? 28.1 27.7 9.2 17.5 2.7 9.9 – – 1.3 0.4 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 21–22 May 2019?? 28.6 27.7 8.9 16.8 2.7 9.7 – – 1.3 0.9 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 20–21 May 2019?? 28.5 27.6 8.9 16.8 2.8 10.1 – – 1.4 0.9 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 19–20 May 2019?? 28.4 27.4 8.8 17.0 2.8 9.9 – – 1.4 1.0 NC Report/La Razón 19 May 2019?? 28.3 30.1???? – – – 1.8 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 16–19 May 2019?? 27.0 26.3 8.2 18.1 2.9 11.7 – – 2.0 0.7 UCAM 18 May 2019? 66.8 27.9 29.4 8.6 14.3 3.8 9.9 – – – 1.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 13–16 May 2019?? 26.0 25.9 7.9 18.8 3.5 11.7 – – 2.7 0.1 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 10–13 May 2019?? 25.9 24.1 6.9 21.2 4.0 13.0 – – 2.0 1.8 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 7–10 May 2019?? 25.0 23.4 7.7 22.9 3.9 13.5 – – 2.1 1.6 CEMOP 2–10 May 2019 1,084 69.3 28.5 27.1 7.8 15.4 2.2 12.6 2.1 – 1.5 1.4 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 4–7 May 2019?? 24.4 23.9 7.3 23.3 3.5 13.7 – – 1.9 0.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 29 Apr–4 May 2019?? 24.1 24.2 7.7 23.8 3.0 13.8 – – 2.0 0.1 April 2019 general election 28 Apr 2019 73.5 23.4 24.8 19.5 18.6 1.4 10.4 0.7 1.4 CIS 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 519? 26.1 31.1 9.0 15.3 4.0 9.9 2.2 – – 5.0 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 31 Mar–7 Apr 2019?? 26.5 22.8 6.4 17.9 4.0 14.9 – – 2.0 3.7 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 24–31 Mar 2019?? 25.7 23.1 6.2 18.6 4.1 15.0 – – 2.1 2.6 CEMOP 18–30 Mar 2019 1,041 66.3 31.6 28.1 10.8 14.4 3.0 8.4 0.7 – 1.1 3.5 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 17–24 Mar 2019?? 25.6 23.8 6.0 19.0 4.0 14.7 – – – 1.8 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 10–17 Mar 2019?? 25.2 22.9 5.9 18.4 4.3 17.6 – – – 2.3 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 3–10 Mar 2019?? 24.8 22.6 19.5 17.4 – 9.8 – 2.2 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 22 Feb–3 Mar 2019?? 24.8 22.4 19.8 17.2 – 9.8 – 2.4 ElectoPanel/Electomanía 3–9 Feb 2019 591? 25.5 21.6 21.3 15.5 – 10.2 – 3.9 Celeste-Tel/IU 17 Oct–4 Nov 2018 800 62.0 26.9 25.9 9.6 19.8 6.0 5.2 – – 2.3 1.0 CEMOP 11–28 Oct 2018 815 69.6 30.8 26.4 10.1 18.0 2.8 5.0 2.2 – 2.4 4.4 CEMOP 2–23 May 2018 817 69.6 25.8 18.9 10.1 31.3 – – – – 5.6 5.5 SyM Consulting 7–9 Mar 2018 1,100 63.4 32.4 26.0 10.2 18.8 7.1 – – – – 6.4 PP 24 Mar 2017??????? – – – –? Celeste-Tel/PSOE 16–22 Mar 2017 1,000? 34.5 26.1 15.7 15.5 2.4 – – – – 8.4 NC Report/La Razón 27 Feb–1 Mar 2017 600 60.4 39.1 22.9 12.0 12.9 3.6 – – – – 16.2 2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 69.6 46.7 20.3 15.7 0.4 1.2 14.5 – 26.4 2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 71.1 40.4 20.3 15.2 17.7 3.1 0.5 0.9 – – 20.1 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 63.6 37.4 23.9 13.2 12.6 4.8 0.8 0.7 – – 13.5

Voting preferences The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Lead 2019 regional election 26 May 2019 20.6 20.6 3.5 7.6 1.3 6.0 0.5 – 1.3 35.9 0.0 CEMOP 2–10 May 2019 1,084 19.2 20.3 5.5 13.6 0.9 7.4 1.4 – 0.9 22.3 5.6 1.1 April 2019 general election 28 Apr 2019 17.6 18.5 14.6 14.0 1.0 7.8 0.5 24.3 0.9 CIS 21 Mar–23 Apr 2019 519 19.5 23.4 4.5 8.4 1.4 7.2 1.0 – – 24.5 8.4 3.9 CEMOP 18–30 Mar 2019 1,041 21.9 20.1 8.1 12.0 2.0 5.7 1.2 – 0.9 22.1 2.6 1.8 CEMOP 11–28 Oct 2018 815 19.4 16.7 5.3 11.4 1.1 3.9 1.2 – 1.5 20.2 12.9 2.7 CEMOP 2–23 May 2018 817 16.2 10.3 6.1 22.6 – – – – 2.3 23.5 8.7 6.4 2016 general election 26 Jun 2016 33.1 14.4 11.1 0.3 0.8 10.2 – 28.7 18.7 2015 general election 20 Dec 2015 29.2 14.7 11.0 12.8 2.3 0.3 0.7 – – 27.0 14.5 2015 regional election 24 May 2015 23.9 15.3 8.4 8.0 3.1 0.6 0.5 – – 34.8 8.6

Victory preferences The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CEMOP 2–10 May 2019 1,084 25.7 28.0 5.3 16.8 0.4 7.3 3.3 13.3 2.3 CEMOP 18–30 Mar 2019 1,041 26.0 25.6 8.1 15.6 2.6 6.4 4.5 11.2 0.4

Victory likelihood The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Other/None Lead CEMOP 2–10 May 2019 1,084 36.4 36.9 0.1 3.0 1.8 0.2 21.7 0.5 CEMOP 18–30 Mar 2019 1,041 70.2 12.2 1.0 2.4 2.4 0.4 11.5 58.0

Results